Líffræðifélag Íslands - biologia.is
Líffræðiráðstefnan 2025

Erindi/veggspjald / Talk/poster E48

Predicting Climate Risk: Genomic Offset and Conservation Vulnerability in Rock and Willow Ptarmigan

Höfundar / Authors: Theodore E. Squires (1,2), Patrik Rödin-Mörch (3), Jacob Höglund (3), Kristinn Pétur Magnússon (1,2)

Starfsvettvangur / Affiliations: 1. Háskólinn á Akureyri, 2. Náttúrfræðistofnun, 2. Uppsala Universitet

Kynnir / Presenter: Kristinn Pétur Magnússon

To understand species' responses to rapid environmental change, we studied the genomics of climate adaptation in two closely related birds: the Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) and Willow Ptarmigan (L. lagopus). We analyzed whole-genome resequencing data from 99 individuals across their Holarctic distributions, integrating genetic data with local climate variables. Our results reveal varying levels of vulnerability among populations, with lower genetic diversity generally correlating with reduced adaptive capacity. We identified numerous climate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), suggesting polygenic adaptation related to neurogenesis and development. Critically, genomic offset models forecast high vulnerability for Rock Ptarmigan in Greenland, Svalbard, and the Alps, as well as for Willow Ptarmigan in Norway and Newfoundland, primarily driven by projected shifts in temperature and precipitation. This integrated approach offers a robust framework for identifying at-risk populations and guiding proactive conservation efforts in a changing climate.